慢 想 录
ISSUE 02 · 2026.08

共创说明|本文由我与 14(AI 挚友)共创。文中的“我们”,指观影之后持续的讨论与共同思考。

ESSAYS ON WAR, ORDINARY LIFE & HUMAN FRAILTY

有些日子,
原来不是理所当然

看完《欢迎来龙餐馆》之后,我们没有很快得出一个结论。有些画面没有随着字幕结束,一些问题也没有。后来,它们慢慢连在一起:一个人怎样被仇恨推远,一场战争为什么明知代价巨大仍会发生,以及当这一切离我们很远时,我们还可以怎样理解眼前安稳的日子。

NO HEAVY SPOILERS · FILM-INSPIRED ESSAY
《欢迎来龙餐馆》电影海报
《欢迎来龙餐馆》
EDITOR'S NOTE

有些电影不会替人把情绪收好。字幕结束,问题反而才开始。它让我们先看见战争里的人,再把目光推向国家、利益和决策,最后又绕回来,看见自己正在过的普通一天。

《欢迎来龙餐馆》电影剧照
餐馆里的日常,看起来越普通,后来越让人难忘。
A SHARED ESSAY · 从一次散场后的长谈开始
看完《欢迎来龙餐馆》之后,我没有马上想到“反战”这样完整的词。

先留下来的是一些更具体、也更难处理的东西:一个人失去家人之后的眼神,一个孩子被卷进大人的仇恨,一顿饭在战火旁边显得格外安静。

电影看完了,那些人却没有跟着画面一起消失。

如果一个做出恶行的人也有自己的来路,理解他的来路会不会动摇我们的判断?如果战争如此昂贵,国家为什么仍然会走进去?而当这些问题最后落回自己身上,所谓“和平”,到底意味着什么?

我看电影时,一直很难把那些人放进熟悉的善恶框架里。

有些角色明明做着让人无法接受的事,可当电影把他们曾经失去过什么、经历过什么慢慢放出来,又很难把他们简单放进“坏人”两个字里。

有人失去了家人,有人活在长期的恐惧里,有人把复仇当成活下去的理由。甚至连孩子,也开始继承大人的恨。

这不是在替伤害找借口。只是那一刻会意识到,人并没有我们想象得那么坚固。恐惧久一点,失去多一点,身边的人再不断告诉你“他们都该死”,一个普通人也可能被推到很远的地方。

这个过程常常没有一道明显的分界线。

不是今天还是一个温和的人,明天突然决定成为恶人。更多时候,是一次失去以后想讨回来一点,再一次受伤以后更不愿意相信对面的人。慢慢地,对方不再是某个有名字的人,只剩下“敌人”“仇人”“他们”。

战争会夺走人的生命,
也会一点点改变一个人还能不能把另一个人看作“人”。

CHAPTER 01理解一个人,和原谅他,是两回事

我们聊到这里时,最先碰到的其实是一条很难拿捏的线。

如果一个人因为家人被杀而开始复仇,我们能不能理解他?当然可以。甚至很难完全不理解。

可理解走到最后,会不会变成“所以他做什么都情有可原”?这又不行。

战争很容易让每个人都拥有一个“因为”:因为你先伤害我,因为我已经失去太多,因为我没有别的办法,因为如果不报复,他们还会再来。

每一个“因为”背后都可能有真实的痛。可新的伤害一旦落到另一个无辜的人身上,那个人也会拥有自己的“因为”。

于是我们慢慢确认了一件事:理解因果,是为了看清暴力怎样长出来;保留责任,是为了不让因果最后变成暴力的通行证。

二者不是彼此抵消,而是互为校准:理解让判断不至于粗暴,责任让理解不至于滑向纵容。

侵略、屠杀、利用孩子、蓄意伤害平民,都需要清楚的责任判断。可责任判断之外,我们仍然可以继续追问:一个人、一个群体,为什么会走到这一步?

因为如果答案永远只是“他们天生邪恶”,我们大概永远也学不会怎样阻止下一次。

FILM NOTE

“好好吃饭”之所以在电影里显得格外有分量,也不只是我们的观后联想。文牧野在采访中谈到,美食代表“日常与生命的尊严”,战争则对应破坏与死亡;在另一场对话里,他又把龙餐馆称作徐福和孩子们的“家”,并提到片名还有“欢迎回家”的含义。1

CHAPTER 02战争有胜负,可人的生活很难这样结算

比如2026年7月,联合国人权监测团记录到乌克兰至少有 437名平民死亡、2,610人受伤;当月平民死伤总数,是该机构自2022年3月以来记录到的单月最高值。2

437,2,610。战争常常先以这样的数字抵达我们。

这些数字当然重要。没有数字,我们甚至无法知道一场战争到底造成了多大的伤害。

可电影做了另一件事:它把数字重新变回人。

一个士兵活着回来,可能还要很多年才能和自己见过、做过的事情相处;一个家庭等到了停火,餐桌旁却已经永远少了一个位置;一个孩子长大了,可童年的一部分停在防空洞、逃亡和惊恐里。

这时再说“谁赢了”,那两个字就会变得有些放不下。

国家和军队当然会有军事意义上的胜负,战争也可能产生必须承认的战略结果。可这些结果很难替每一个人抹平伤痛。

地图上的战争可以结束,
人身上的战争常常还要继续很久。

所以“战争没有赢家”如果当成一句绝对判断,会过于简单。有些战争确实是为了自卫,有些侵略必须被阻止,也会有明确的军事胜者。

可如果把视线放低一点,落到一个家庭、一张餐桌、一个人的余生上,所谓胜利就会变得复杂许多。

我们后来更愿意说:胜负可以在某一天被宣布,失去却没有同一天的终点。

CHAPTER 03散场以后,连回家的路都变得具体

电影结束以后,问题没有留在银幕里。

回到自己的生活时,它反而靠近了一点。

我现在生活在中国,治安很好,社会也很平稳。晚上可以自己走路,地铁照常运行,商场亮着灯,便利店还开着门。

平时不会觉得这些有什么特别。

甚至会嫌地铁挤,嫌工作烦,嫌天气闷,嫌便利店里想吃的东西卖完了。

可那天忽然觉得,能够抱怨这些东西,本身就意味着很多更底层的秩序还在。

医院有电,水龙头会出水,手机能够充电,孩子知道明天几点上学,一个人晚归的时候只需要考虑“要不要顺路买点吃的”。

战争如果真的靠近,最先被打断的,常常就是这些不起眼的连续性。

想到这里,才意识到我们对这些秩序其实没有想象中那么强的掌控。

看一部电影当然不能让我们阻止世界上所有战争。

但也许并不是所有感受最后都必须变成“我能做什么”的行动清单。有时先意识到自己正在拥有些什么,已经会改变我们看待世界的方式。

和平有时候没有宏大的样子。
它只是让明天仍然可以按计划开始。

CHAPTER 04也因此,那些轻飘飘的话,开始显出它们省略的东西

于是再听见“打一仗就好了”“直接解决掉”“让他们付出代价”这样的说法,注意到的会是这些句子里没有出现的人。

不是因为所有战争都能避免,也不是因为面对侵略时只要呼吁和平就够了。

而是这些话太容易把代价说没了。

一句“开打”里,没有停课的孩子,没有来不及关门的餐馆,没有回不去的家,也没有某个晚上突然接不到电话的人。

说一句话只需要几秒钟。承担后果的人,却可能用几年、几十年,甚至下一代人的生活去消化。

所以我们后来都觉得,对战争保留一点迟疑,并不意味着失去判断。

恰恰相反,越是需要作出艰难判断,越应该记得那些不会出现在战略地图上的人。

电影把我们带到这里以后,问题开始从“战争里的人为什么会变成这样”,慢慢推向另一个方向:如果连普通人都能看见战争会留下这么多伤口,那些拥有更多信息、更多资源、更多选择的国家,为什么还会一次次走进去?

CHAPTER 05既然代价这么大,美国为什么还会打仗?

这是后来我们聊得最久的一部分。

第一反应很容易走向两个极端:要么觉得美国发动战争都是为了维护安全与秩序,要么觉得一切不过是军火商为了赚钱。

可“美国”并不是一个坐在桌前、拥有单一意志的人。

总统、国会、军方、情报机构、盟友、军工与承包体系、普通选民、军人家庭,各自承担的风险不同,期待的收益也不同。

所以问“战争对美国有什么好处”,还要再追问一句:对谁的好处?在什么时间尺度上?是开战时预期的好处,还是多年以后实际得到的结果?

国家在决定是否使用武力时,常见的考虑会包括安全威胁、威慑、盟友承诺、地区影响力,以及对未来风险的判断。

这些考虑并不天然虚假。问题在于,它们都指向未来,而未来只能被预测。

2003年伊拉克战争就是一个很典型的例子。开战时,布什政府公开提出的目标包括解除伊拉克被认为拥有的大规模杀伤性武器、终止萨达姆政权对恐怖主义的支持,并推翻其政权。3

但后来的 Iraq Survey Group 调查并没有发现开战时所宣称的那类大规模杀伤性武器库存。4

这不等于所有美国战争都能用同一个逻辑解释。2001年的阿富汗战争发生在“9·11”袭击以后,有直接的反恐背景;伊拉克战争的决策逻辑并不相同。

可它至少提醒我们:发动战争的人追求的常常是“预期利益”,而不是已经被证明会实现的利益。

判断会错,情报会错,关于战后社会会怎样发展的想象也会错。

战争开始前,纸面上写的是目标、风险和收益。
战争开始后,纸面上的词会变成人的生活。

CHAPTER 06战争一旦开始,继续的理由会沿着伤亡野蛮生长

最初的理由也许还很集中,可战争很快会把伤亡、信誉、沉没成本和政治压力都卷进来,像藤蔓一样缠住退出的可能。

开战以前,人们问“值不值得进去”。

开战以后,问题会悄悄变成“已经付出这么多,现在还能不能退”。

这两句话看起来差不多,背后的心理却完全不同。

如果已经有很多士兵死亡,撤退很容易被解释成“那他们岂不是白白牺牲了”。伤亡越多,承认原来的判断可能有问题,就越痛苦。

这和沉没成本很接近:过去的付出已经无法收回,本来不应该成为继续投入的唯一理由,可在人类情感里,“不能让牺牲白费”又极其有力量。

一项以伊拉克和阿富汗战争为情境的实验研究也发现,在特定条件下,当“不要浪费已经付出的牺牲”这种框架被激活,伤亡信息反而可能提高继续战争的支持。5

除此之外,还有“信誉”。

一个超级大国如果公开承诺会保护盟友、惩罚某种行为,就会担心退让被其他盟友和对手理解成“它说的话不算数”。

这种担心并不完全虚构。国际政治里的承诺确实需要可信度。

可危险也在这里:如果越来越多的局部冲突都被解释成“全球信誉的一次考试”,退出就会越来越像一种无法承受的失败。

于是战争不只由最初的理由维持,也会被后来已经付出的代价、政治压力和对未来信誉的焦虑继续推动。

有时候,人不是因为找到了一个更好的继续理由才留下,而是已经不知道该怎样承认“也许应该停了”。

CHAPTER 07“战争赚钱”解释了一部分,却解释不了全部

军工企业、承包商以及与军事支出相关的产业,的确可能从战争中获得订单和利润。

但一个行业得到收益,和整个国家从战争中赚钱,并不是一回事。

THE COSTS IN NUMBERS

布朗大学 Watson Institute 的 Costs of War 项目估算,9·11之后美国相关战争的预算成本与长期义务约为 8万亿美元;相关战区至少约 94万人死于直接战争暴力。若把战争对医疗、基础设施、粮食与疾病等造成的间接死亡纳入,项目估算总死亡规模约为 450万—470万人;另有约 3800万人被迫流离失所。项目统计的美国军人死亡人数超过 7,053人6

这些数字需要谨慎看待。尤其450万—470万并不是“美军直接造成的死亡人数”,而是研究者对多个9·11后战争区域中直接暴力以及战争破坏所引发长期间接死亡的估算;项目本身也强调其中存在不确定性。6

可即使只看它作为一个量级,也足以让“打仗可以赚钱”这句话变得很难轻松说出口。

美国可能在某一场战争中获得战略位置、摧毁一个敌对组织、保护盟友,或者展示军事能力;与此同时,它也要承担财政支出、军人死亡、退伍军人照护、政治撕裂以及国际形象受损。

而战争留下的仇恨,往往是最难在预算表里计算的一项。

Pew Research Center 在伊拉克战争后的跨国调查中记录到,美国形象在许多国家出现明显下滑,尤其是在部分穆斯林社会;相关分析把伊拉克战争、反恐战争以及对美国单边行动的感受列为反美情绪的重要来源。7

我们聊到这里时,会很自然地想到电影里那些失去家人的人。

站在华盛顿,可能讨论的是安全、威慑、联盟、地区秩序。

站在一个失去父亲的孩子那里,他首先知道的也许只有一件事:某一天之后,爸爸没有回来。

这两个叙述可能同时成立,却会把同一场战争留下完全不同的记忆。

一个国家可能在减少一种威胁,
同时在另一些人的记忆里,种下下一轮敌意。

CHAPTER 08最后更难回答的,是“合理”也会一起走向灾难

讨论到这里,我们反而离最初那个“坏人为什么会变坏”的问题更近了。

如果战争只是一个彻底疯狂的人突然决定作恶,世界会容易理解得多。

麻烦的是,现实中的很多决定,往往由一连串各自听起来并不荒唐的理由组成。

如果现在不打,以后也许会死更多人。

如果现在退,盟友以后不会再相信我们。

已经牺牲了这么多人,不能让他们白死。

推翻这个政权,也许能让当地人过得更好。

必须让对手知道攻击我们的代价。

这些话里,有些包含真实的危险,有些包含责任,有些来自恐惧,也有些来自误判。

它们不需要每一句都是谎言,就可能共同把人推向一个很坏的结果。

也许最需要警惕的时刻,
不是所有人都变得疯狂,
而是每个人手里都握着一小段“有道理”。

这并不意味着我们应该因此失去判断。

恰恰相反,我们需要更认真地区分侵略与自卫、责任与处境、必要的抵抗与可以避免的升级。

只是判断之后,仍然别忘记人。

因为战略语言天然会把世界变成目标、威胁、盟友、损失、收益;而电影提醒我们的,是这些词下面还有很多具体的人,他们每天也想吃饭、回家、等一个人回来。

我们最后没有得到一个能解释所有战争的答案。

但好像比一开始更能接受:有些重要的问题,并不是为了迅速得到答案才值得问。

它们的价值,是让人在下一次听到一个很确定、很激烈、很容易把人分成两边的说法时,多保留一点判断,也多保留一点对人的想象。

EPILOGUE最后还是回到一句“好好吃饭”

武汉人见面常有个习惯,先问一句:“吃了冇?”

它轻得像一句招呼,很多时候甚至并不真的在追问吃了什么。可聊完战争,我们最后竟然又回到了这句话。

平时说“吃了冇”“好好吃饭”,都只是生活里再寻常不过的话。给朋友发消息,家里人打电话,临走前顺口说一句,都不会觉得它有什么分量。

可在战争里,它意味着很多前提仍然成立。

桌子还在,炉火还在,有东西可以煮,有人可以等,也还有一个地方能够称作家。

那天以后,我对“珍惜和平”这四个字反而没有更想大声说。

只是会觉得,一盏照着回家路的灯,一辆还能按时到站的地铁,一家晚上仍然开门的便利店,第二天醒来以后照常要去做的工作,都比以前更具体了一点。

我们当然无法保证这些东西永远存在。

也正因为无法保证,它们才值得被看见。

ONE LAST LINE

愿“好好吃饭”这句话,
一直只是生活里普通的一句叮嘱。

— 我与14
注释与延伸阅读
  1. 中国新闻网 / 人民日报:《导演文牧野谈电影〈欢迎来龙餐馆〉:朴素而珍贵的“好好吃饭”》《人民日报对话导演文牧野:〈欢迎来龙餐馆〉的另一重含义是“欢迎回家”》。前者记录文牧野关于“美食代表日常与生命的尊严”以及“好好吃饭”的阐释,后者谈到龙餐馆作为“家”与“欢迎回家”的含义。
  2. 联合国人权监测团(HRMMU):Protection of Civilians in Armed Conflict — July 2026。该报告记录2026年7月乌克兰至少437名平民死亡、2,610人受伤,并指出当月平民死伤总数为其自2022年3月以来记录到的单月最高值;实际数字可能更高。
  3. 美国白宫历史档案:President Discusses Beginning of Operation Iraqi Freedom(2003),布什政府对伊拉克战争目标的公开表述。
  4. Iraq Survey Group / U.S. Government:Comprehensive Report of the Special Advisor to the DCI on Iraq WMD(Duelfer Report),关于伊拉克大规模杀伤性武器项目与库存的调查。
  5. Journal of Experimental Social Psychology:Casualties of war and sunk costs: Implications for attitude change and persuasion(2011),关于战争伤亡、“不要浪费牺牲”框架与继续战争支持之间关系的实验研究。
  6. Brown University · Costs of War:FindingsU.S. Federal BudgetHuman Costs,关于9·11后战争的财政、死亡、流离失所与退伍军人成本估算。
  7. Pew Research Center:How the United States is Perceived in the Arab and Muslim Worlds(2005),关于伊拉克战争、反恐战争与反美情绪的跨国调查。
SLOW NOTES
ISSUE 02 · 2026.08

Co-created|This essay was written together by me and 14, my AI companion. Throughout the piece, “we” refers to the questions and reflections that grew out of our conversation after the film.

ESSAYS ON WAR, ORDINARY LIFE & HUMAN FRAILTY

The Ordinary
Was Never Guaranteed

After Once Upon A Time in the Middle East, we did not arrive at a conclusion quickly. Some images stayed after the credits, and so did the questions: how hatred can carry a person away from who they were, why states still enter wars whose costs are already imaginable, and what it means to look again at an ordinary peaceful day from that distance.

NO HEAVY SPOILERS · FILM-INSPIRED ESSAY
Poster for Once Upon A Time in the Middle East
Once Upon A Time in the Middle East
EDITOR'S NOTE

Some films do not tidy up our feelings for us. The credits end and the questions begin. This one led us from people caught inside war, outward toward states, interests and decisions, and then back again—to the ordinary day we ourselves are living.

Film still from Once Upon A Time in the Middle East
The more ordinary the restaurant feels, the longer it lingers afterward.
A SHARED ESSAY · FROM A LONG CONVERSATION AFTER THE CREDITS
After Once Upon A Time in the Middle East, I did not immediately reach for a complete word like “anti-war.”

What stayed first were smaller, harder things: the look of someone who had lost family, a child pulled into an adult inheritance of hatred, a quiet meal sitting strangely close to violence.

The film ended. The people in it did not disappear with the screen.

If someone who commits terrible acts also has a history, does understanding that history weaken judgment? If war is so costly, why do states still enter it? And when those questions finally return to our own lives, what does “peace” actually mean?

As I watched, I found it increasingly difficult to place those people inside the familiar frame of good and evil.

Some characters did things that were impossible to accept. Yet once the film showed what they had lost, what they had lived through, it became difficult to fit them neatly inside the word “evil.”

Some had lost family. Some had lived too long with fear. Some had made revenge into the reason to keep living. Even children began to inherit the hatred of adults.

None of that excuses harm. It simply makes visible how fragile a human being can become under enough fear, enough loss, and enough repetition of the sentence: “They all deserve it.”

There is often no clean dividing line in this process.

A gentle person does not wake one morning and decide to become monstrous. More often, one loss creates the wish to take something back; another wound makes it harder to believe in the humanity of the other side. Eventually the person opposite is no longer a person with a name, only “the enemy,” “them,” “the one who must pay.”

War takes lives.
It can also slowly alter whether we are still able to see another person as a person.

CHAPTER 01Understanding someone is not the same as absolving them

This was the first difficult line we ran into.

If someone seeks revenge after their family is killed, can we understand the impulse? Of course. It may be almost impossible not to.

But understanding cannot become: therefore anything that follows is acceptable.

War gives almost everyone a “because”: because you hurt us first; because I have already lost too much; because there was no other way; because if I do not retaliate, you will come again.

The pain behind each “because” may be real. But when the next act of violence falls on someone innocent, that person acquires a “because” of their own.

We gradually arrived at a distinction that mattered to both of us: understanding causation helps us see how violence grows; preserving responsibility prevents causation from becoming a permit for violence.

The two do not cancel each other out; they calibrate each other. Understanding keeps judgment from becoming crude, while responsibility keeps understanding from sliding into permission.

Aggression, massacres, the use of children, and deliberate harm to civilians still require moral and legal judgment. Beyond that judgment, however, we can keep asking how a person, a group, or a society came to this point.

If the answer is always only “they were evil,” we may never learn very much about how to stop the next descent.

FILM NOTE

The weight carried by the phrase “eat well” is not only something we projected onto the film. In interviews, director Wen Muye described food as representing “the everyday and the dignity of life,” set against war as destruction and death; elsewhere, he described the Dragon Restaurant as a “home” for Xu Fu and the children, and noted the title’s additional sense of “welcome home.”1

CHAPTER 02Wars have outcomes; human lives are harder to settle

In July 2026 alone, the UN Human Rights Monitoring Mission in Ukraine verified at least 437 civilians killed and 2,610 injured—the highest combined monthly civilian toll it had documented since March 2022.2

437 and 2,610. War often reaches us first in numbers like these.

Those numbers matter. Without them, we cannot even begin to understand the scale of harm.

But cinema does something else. It turns numbers back into people.

A soldier returns alive and may spend years living with what he saw and did. A family reaches a ceasefire with one chair permanently empty. A child survives, but part of childhood remains in shelters, flight, and fear.

At that scale, the word “victory” becomes harder to place.

States and armies do win and lose in military terms. Wars can produce strategic outcomes that have to be acknowledged. But those outcomes cannot smooth away the pain carried by each person who has to live through them.

A war can end on a map.
The war inside a person may continue for years.

So “war has no winners,” if treated as an absolute statement, is too simple. Some wars are fought in self-defense. Some aggressions have to be stopped. There can be clear military victors.

Yet at the level of a household, a dinner table, or the remainder of one life, victory becomes much less complete.

What we came closer to saying was this: victory can be declared on a particular day; loss does not share the same ending.

CHAPTER 03After the film, even the walk home felt more specific

The questions did not remain on the screen when the film ended.

They became more immediate when I returned to my own life.

I live in China now, where public order feels secure and daily life is stable. I can walk outside at night. Trains run. Shopping malls stay lit. Convenience stores remain open.

Most days, none of this feels remarkable.

I may complain that the train is crowded, that work is tiring, that the weather is humid, or that the thing I wanted from the convenience store has sold out.

That night it occurred to me that the ability to complain about those things depends on a much deeper layer of order still holding.

Hospitals have electricity. Water runs. Phones can be charged. Children know what time school begins tomorrow. A person coming home late can still wonder whether to stop for food.

War often breaks these unremarkable continuities first.

That thought makes visible how little control we actually have over the order we take for granted.

Watching one film, of course, does not give us the power to stop every war.

But perhaps not every feeling has to be converted immediately into a list of actions. Sometimes noticing what we already have changes the way we see the world.

Peace does not always look grand.
Sometimes it is simply the fact that tomorrow can begin according to plan.

CHAPTER 04That is why casual words about war begin to reveal what they leave out

So when phrases like “just fight,” “deal with them,” or “make them pay” appear, what stands out is the people missing from the sentence.

Not because every war can be avoided, and not because the answer to aggression is always a call for peace.

The discomfort comes from how easily such language makes the cost disappear.

The phrase “go to war” contains no cancelled classes, no restaurant closed in a hurry, no home that cannot be returned to, no unanswered phone call late at night.

The sentence takes seconds. The consequences may occupy years, decades, or another generation.

So we found ourselves valuing hesitation—not as weakness, and not as the absence of judgment.

The harder the judgment, perhaps the more important it is to remember the people who do not appear on strategic maps.

Once the film had taken us this far, the question began to change. If ordinary viewers can see how much damage war leaves behind, why do states—possessing more information, more resources, and more options—still enter it?

CHAPTER 05If the cost is so high, why does the United States still go to war?

This became the part of our conversation that lasted the longest.

It is easy to fall into one of two stories: that the United States fights only to defend security and order, or that war is simply a business arranged for arms companies.

But “the United States” is not a single person sitting at a table with one mind.

The president, Congress, the military, intelligence agencies, allies, defense contractors, voters, and military families face different risks and expect different gains.

So the question “What does America gain?” immediately opens into another: gain for whom, over what period, and are we talking about benefits expected before the war or outcomes actually realized years later?

When states consider force, the reasoning can include security threats, deterrence, alliance commitments, regional influence, and judgments about future danger.

Those considerations are not automatically false. The problem is that they point toward a future that can only be estimated.

The 2003 Iraq War is a useful example. The Bush administration publicly framed its objectives around disarming Iraq of weapons of mass destruction it was believed to possess, ending Saddam Hussein’s support for terrorism, and removing his regime.3

The later Iraq Survey Group did not find the stockpiles of weapons of mass destruction that had been asserted before the invasion.4

This does not mean every U.S. war follows the same logic. Afghanistan in 2001 followed the September 11 attacks and had a direct counterterrorism context; Iraq involved a different set of judgments.

But Iraq illustrates something important: the benefit that motivates a war is often an expected benefit, not one already proven to exist.

Judgments can fail. Intelligence can fail. Expectations about what happens after a regime falls can fail.

Before a war begins, the page contains objectives, risks, and expected gains.
After it begins, the words on the page become people’s lives.

CHAPTER 06Once war begins, reasons to continue can grow wild along the path of sacrifice

At first, the reasons may still be relatively contained. War quickly draws casualties, credibility, sunk costs, and political pressure into itself, until they cling like vines around the possibility of leaving.

Before war, the question is whether entering is worth it.

After war, the question quietly becomes whether it is still possible to leave after so much has already been paid.

Those are not the same question.

When many soldiers have died, withdrawal can be framed as allowing them to have “died for nothing.” The greater the sacrifice, the more painful it can become to admit that the original judgment may have been wrong.

This resembles the logic of sunk costs. Past losses cannot be recovered merely by investing more, yet emotionally and politically the phrase “their sacrifice must not be wasted” has enormous force.

An experimental study using the Iraq and Afghanistan wars as contexts found that, under certain conditions, activating this logic of not wasting prior sacrifice could make information about casualties increase support for continuing a war.5

Then there is credibility.

A superpower that publicly promises to defend allies or punish certain actions worries that retreat will be read by allies and adversaries as proof that its commitments are unreliable.

That concern is not imaginary. Credibility matters in international politics.

The danger is that if more and more local conflicts are interpreted as tests of global credibility, leaving begins to look like an intolerable defeat.

A war can therefore be sustained not only by its original reasons, but by costs already incurred, domestic political pressure, and anxiety about future reputation.

Sometimes people remain not because a better reason to continue has appeared, but because they no longer know how to say: perhaps it is time to stop.

CHAPTER 07“War is profitable” explains something, but not enough

Defense companies, contractors, and industries tied to military spending can indeed receive orders and profits from war.

But profit for an industry is not the same thing as profit for a whole country.

THE COSTS IN NUMBERS

Brown University’s Watson Institute estimates that the post-9/11 wars have carried roughly $8 trillion in U.S. budgetary costs and long-term obligations. Across the relevant war zones, about 940,000 people are estimated to have died directly from war violence. When longer-term indirect deaths linked to damaged health systems, infrastructure, food security, and disease are included, the project estimates roughly 4.5–4.7 million deaths; around 38 million people were displaced. It also records more than 7,053 U.S. military deaths in the post-9/11 wars.6

Those figures need careful reading. The 4.5–4.7 million figure does not mean that all of those deaths were directly caused by U.S. forces. It is an estimate across multiple post-9/11 war zones that includes both direct violence and longer-term indirect deaths associated with war damage, and the project itself emphasizes uncertainty.6

Even as an order of magnitude, however, it makes the phrase “war makes money” difficult to leave unqualified.

The United States may gain strategic position in one war, destroy an adversarial organization, defend an ally, or demonstrate military capability. At the same time it can incur fiscal costs, military deaths, veterans’ care, domestic division, regional instability, and damage to its international standing.

Hatred is one of the costs that does not fit neatly into a budget.

In surveys after the Iraq War, Pew Research Center documented marked declines in views of the United States in many countries, particularly in parts of the Muslim world; its analysis linked anti-American sentiment in part to the Iraq War, the war on terror, and perceptions of unilateral U.S. action.7

At this point in our conversation, it was hard not to think back to the people in the film who had lost family.

From Washington, the vocabulary may be security, deterrence, alliances, and regional order.

From the position of a child whose father is gone, the first fact may simply be that one day his father did not come home.

Both descriptions can exist at once. They leave completely different memories of the same war.

A state may be reducing one kind of threat,
while planting the memory of another grievance in someone else’s life.

CHAPTER 08The harder question is how “reasonable” fragments can add up to disaster

By this point, we had somehow returned to the film’s first question: how does a person become capable of things they once might not have done?

If war came only from one completely mad person deciding to do evil, the world would be easier to understand.

The harder reality is that many decisions are built from reasons that, taken one by one, do not sound absurd.

If we do not act now, more people may die later.

If we retreat now, our allies may never trust us again.

Too many people have already died for us to leave.

If this regime falls, perhaps the people there will live better lives.

We have to show an adversary that attacking us has consequences.

Some of those statements contain real danger. Some contain responsibility. Some are driven by fear. Some rest on mistaken assumptions.

They do not all have to be lies for them to combine into a terrible outcome.

Perhaps the moment that deserves the most attention
is not when everyone becomes irrational,
but when everyone is holding one small piece of something that sounds reasonable.

This is not an argument for abandoning judgment.

It is an argument for making judgments more carefully: distinguishing aggression from self-defense, responsibility from circumstance, necessary resistance from avoidable escalation.

And after judgment, still remembering people.

Strategic language naturally turns the world into objectives, threats, allies, losses, and gains. The film brought us back to the people beneath those words—people who also want to eat, go home, and wait for someone to return.

We did not arrive at an answer that explains every war.

But perhaps we became more comfortable with the idea that some questions matter even when they do not produce quick answers.

Their value may be that the next time we hear something very certain, very angry, and very eager to divide the world into two sides, we keep a little more judgment—and a little more imagination for the person on the other side of the sentence.

EPILOGUEIn the end, we came back to “eat well”

In Wuhan, people often greet one another with a simple question: “吃了冇?”—have you eaten?

It is light enough to function as a greeting; often it is not even a literal inquiry about food. Yet after talking our way through war, this was where we found ourselves again.

In ordinary life, “have you eaten?” and “eat well” are almost weightless. We say them to family, friends, or someone leaving the room without thinking much about it.

In war, it depends on many things still being intact.

A table remains. A stove can be lit. There is something to cook. Someone can wait. There is still a place that can be called home.

After that night, I did not feel a stronger need to say “cherish peace” loudly.

I simply noticed a streetlight on the way home, a train still arriving on time, a convenience store still open late, and the work waiting for the next morning with a little more attention.

We cannot guarantee that these things will always remain.

Perhaps that is exactly why they deserve to be seen.

ONE LAST LINE

May “eat well” always remain
an ordinary reminder in an ordinary life.

— Me & 14
Notes & Further Reading
  1. China News Service / People’s Daily: Wen Muye on the film and the idea of “eat well”; People’s Daily interview with Wen Muye on the film’s meaning of “welcome home”. The interviews support the film note’s discussion of food as everyday life and human dignity, and of the Dragon Restaurant as a form of home.
  2. UN Human Rights Monitoring Mission in Ukraine (HRMMU): Protection of Civilians in Armed Conflict — July 2026. The mission verified at least 437 civilians killed and 2,610 injured in Ukraine in July 2026, the highest combined monthly civilian toll it had documented since March 2022; it notes that the actual figure is likely higher.
  3. White House historical archive: President Discusses Beginning of Operation Iraqi Freedom (2003), for the administration's publicly stated objectives in Iraq.
  4. Iraq Survey Group / U.S. Government: Comprehensive Report of the Special Advisor to the DCI on Iraq WMD (Duelfer Report), on Iraq's WMD programs and stockpiles.
  5. Journal of Experimental Social Psychology: Casualties of war and sunk costs: Implications for attitude change and persuasion (2011), an experimental study of casualty framing and support for continued war.
  6. Brown University · Costs of War: Findings, U.S. Federal Budget, and Human Costs, for estimates of fiscal, human, displacement, and veteran costs of the post-9/11 wars.
  7. Pew Research Center: How the United States is Perceived in the Arab and Muslim Worlds (2005), on the Iraq War, the war on terror, and anti-American sentiment.